1. The Bankability Score
The score is a weighted sum of nine underwriting factors, each normalized to a 0–1 quality value and multiplied by its weight. Weights total 100, so the output is a 0–100 index:
score = Σ clamp(normalize(factor_value), 0, 1) × factor_weight
| Factor | Weight | Normalization | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Years of operating history Years in continuous operation | 15 | min(1, years ÷ 7) | FSA direct/guaranteed operating-loan eligibility guidance; farms under 3 years are underwritten as beginning farmers. Source |
| Trailing 12-month revenue Gross farm revenue, last 12 months | 15 | min(1, revenue ÷ $1,000,000) | USDA ERS farm-typology revenue classes; $1M gross is the top of the 'small family farm' band. Source |
| 3-year revenue stability Inverse coefficient of variation across 3 years | 10 | value ÷ 100 | Standard repayment-capacity analysis; ag lenders stress-test against historical revenue variance. Source |
| Contracted acreage / offtake % of production under signed contract or forward sale | 15 | value ÷ 100 | Contracted volume is treated as committed cash flow in repayment-capacity worksheets. |
| Digital recordkeeping depth % of yield, cost, and traceability records kept digitally | 15 | value ÷ 100 | Records requirements under FSMA Produce Safety Rule and USDA GAP audit checklists. Source |
| Crop insurance coverage % of acreage covered by RMA or private policy | 10 | value ÷ 100 | USDA RMA coverage is routinely required as loan collateral protection. Source |
| Debt-to-asset ratio Total debt ÷ total assets | 10 | max(0, 1 − ratio ÷ 70) | Farm Financial Standards Council solvency benchmarks; above ~60% is a common lender red flag. Source |
| Crop / buyer diversification Distinct crops × distinct buyers | 5 | min(1, count ÷ 6) | Concentration risk adjustment — a single buyer is treated as a revenue-continuity risk. |
| Climate & irrigation resilience Irrigation coverage, water rights, soil-health composite | 5 | value ÷ 100 | NRCS soil-health and irrigation-water-management practice standards. Source |
Score bands
Conventional operating lines and equipment loans at best available rates.
Bankable on typical FSA or community-bank terms; some collateral tightening.
Approvable with guarantees or higher rates. Records depth is usually the fastest lever.
Needs a structured improvement plan before lenders will engage.
The score is a readiness index, not a credit decision. It does not query credit bureaus, does not produce a FICO or FSA determination, and no lender is obligated to act on it.
2. The profitability math
The ROI calculator takes four farm inputs — acres, revenue per acre, variable inputs per acre, and the share of harvest that goes unsold — and applies three independent benefit terms. Each multiplier is set at the low end of its published range so the output understates rather than overstates.
| Term | Formula | Why this number |
|---|---|---|
| Yield uplift | revenue_per_acre × 15% | Conservative low end of published diversified-rotation and cover-crop trial results. |
| Fertilizer savings | inputs_per_acre × 25% × 30% | Fertilizer is modeled at 25% of variable input spend; soil-test-driven N-P-K targeting saves 30% of that line (low end of the 30–50% range). |
| Recovered sales | revenue_per_acre × unsold% × 60% | Pre-season contracting recovers the low end of the 60–80% unsold-harvest reduction range. |
| Annual benefit | (sum of the three above) × acres | No compounding, no price escalation, no labor savings included. |
| Payback (months) | annual_subscription_cost ÷ (annual_benefit ÷ 12) | Simple payback. No discount rate is applied. |
The three benefit terms are treated as additive and independent. On farms where they overlap — for example, where recovered sales are themselves part of the yield uplift — the real figure will be lower than the modeled one.
3. Cited sources for each multiplier
- +15-25%Yield uplift from optimized rotation & cover-cropping
Mohler & Johnson, SARE Crop Rotation on Organic Farms (2009); Iowa State Marsden Farm long-term rotation trial.
USDA-SARE diversified rotation trials; Iowa State long-term study - $120-$300Per-acre margin gain when planting matches pre-season buyer demand
USDA AMS Fruit & Vegetable Market News terminal-market prices; Local Line and Barn2Door published grower case studies.
USDA AMS specialty-crop pricing; Local Line / Barn2Door case studies - 30-50%Reduction in fertilizer spend when N-P-K targets use soil-test data
USDA NRCS Conservation Practice Standard 590 - Nutrient Management; supporting state extension nutrient-budget guidance.
NRCS Nutrient Management Plan benchmarks (Code 590) - 60-80%Less unsold harvest when contracts are secured pre-season
USDA ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data; ASAP Connections local-food market reports (Appalachian region).
USDA ERS specialty-crop loss data; ASAP local-food market studies - 3-6 moTypical payback at $79/mo Pro on a 5-25 acre vegetable operation
BAU Farm Intelligence internal pilot economics model; figures illustrative pending pilot validation (Zones 7-9).
BAU internal pilot economics (illustrative; pending validation)
4. What is modeled vs. measured
Measured. Everything on the live traction page — farms onboarded, acres under management, application logs, certifications — is queried directly from the production database at request time.
Modeled. The bankability score and ROI figures are calculations over inputs you supply. They are decision-support estimates, not audited results, and they carry no guarantee of loan approval, yield, price, or margin.
Pending validation. Payback periods drawn from BAU pilot economics are illustrative until multi-season pilot data closes out. Those figures are labeled as such wherever they appear.
Found an assumption you would underwrite differently? We would rather correct it than defend it — the weights above are versioned and change in public.